Shaping policy
Advancing actuarial science to influence critical societal challenges
Our members worked on a range of strategic policy and thought leadership initiatives addressing climate, pensions, and AI. This demonstrated our commitment to helping solve complex societal challenges while providing members with valuable insights.
Our pension gap research reached wide audiences through national, local and trade press
We’ve been investigating barriers people in the UK face when saving for retirement. The IFoA’s Pensions Gap Working Party modelled how these obstacles impact savings and how people can lose out. Our report ‘How much could you lose?’ offers recommendations for savers, employers, and government to help workers maximise pension savings.
The report gained significant media coverage in the Daily Mirror, FT Adviser, Money Week and six trade publications. It reached over 100 key pensions stakeholders and informed the Money and Pensions Service’s national pensions week messaging. The research earned endorsements from MoneySavingExpert, Which? and Ipsos.
The pensions gap was also featured in the third issue of our ‘think’ thought leadership series. The ‘think’ initiative takes a fresh, sometimes challenging look at issues facing the actuarial profession and society. This year, we published seven editions on diverse topics, including the future of insurance, behavioural economics, longevity, and the UK smoking ban. At events on IFoA Communities, members heard more from the authors and asked them questions about the informative ideas presented.
think issue 3
March 2024
think issue 4
May 2024
think issue 5
August 2024
think issue 6
September 2024
think issue 7
November 2024
think issue 8
December 2024
think issue 9
February 2025
Our climate risk research earned global coverage, references in parliament and presentations to five Whitehall departments
The severe impacts of climate change are emerging at lower temperatures than expected. ‘Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail’, our third paper with climate scientists, calls for a realistic risk assessment as a matter of urgency. It introduces the pioneering concept of ‘Planetary Solvency’, which would assess risks to the ecosystem services underpinning society.
The report’s reception was remarkable, generating over 30 news articles and multiple high-profile interviews with organisations including Finextra and the Chartered Banker Institute. That was on top of 6,000 page views, 2,300 downloads, and 35,000 social media impressions.
Written by members in partnership with University of Exeter, Climate Scorpion’s influence is evident. It was referenced in the UK’s House of Lords and won best paper at the JoCo 2024 conference in Brussels, Belgium. Co-author Sandy Trust was invited to represent the IFoA in a technical advisory group working with the US Treasury on an economic analysis of climate change. And the IFoA was invited to join the UN Environment Programme’s Forum for Insurance Transition to Net Zero.
Planetary Solvency was then the focus of our fourth report with climate scientists. The follow-up paper earned global coverage with 100 articles and a Guardian exclusive. It was presented to UK government officials at departments including HM Treasury, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and the Cabinet Office.
The report warns that the global economy faces a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090. That is unless we take immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis.
Planetary Solvency develops a framework for global risk management and shows how a lack of realistic risk messaging to guide policy decisions has led to slower action than needed. The work is a springboard for a digital risk dashboard, developed with Exeter University, to provide decision-useful risk information to support policymakers.
Simon Thompson, IFoA Fellow and former CEO Chartered Banker Institute, on Climate Scorpion
One of the most compelling, thought-provoking and best-titled papers on climate risk I’ve read in years.
Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle, on Planetary Solvency. Member of the House of Lords
To put this in terms that may be more comfortable for the Minister, I note that, last month, the University of Exeter and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries co-produced a report, Planetary Solvency. One of the co-authors of that report is in fact a member of the Government Actuary’s Department. This is material that is coming out of the Government’s own work. This report makes a number of recommendations, acknowledging that there is an increasing risk of planetary insolvency unless we act decisively.
© House of Lords / photography by Roger Harris
The CMI marked 100 years of providing insight and consulted on improving its projections model
Funded by its subscribers with input from over 50 volunteers, the Continuous Mortality Investigation produces high-quality impartial analysis and research into mortality and morbidity.
This year saw several highlights, with the organisation celebrating a significant milestone: 100 years of providing valuable mortality and morbidity insights. This achievement was marked with an article in The Actuary, a celebration at the CMI Committee Member Forum and an upcoming book.
It started a comprehensive review, seeking views from subscribers, to improve the CMI Model and provide a better fit to recent data across the full age range during and after the pandemic. Throughout the year there were also regular analyses of mortality and morbidity experience, including:
- The first multi-factor analysis for self-administered pension schemes
- An analysis of income protection experience using a new system and methodology, paving the way for more regular analyses
- Weekly editions of the mortality monitor, which are regularly quoted in the media.
Additionally, the CMI worked with the Mortality Research Steering Committee to analyse a new cause of death dataset, expanding the scope of its research endeavours.
Cobus Daneel, IFoA Fellow and Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee
In recent years, projecting mortality rates has been particularly challenging, necessitating frequent and pragmatic updates to the CMI Model. Now that mortality is returning to more typical levels, we took the opportunity to undertake a comprehensive overhaul of the model. Our proposed changes – welcomed by users – are designed to reduce the need for future interventions, more accurately reflect recent trends across all age groups, and provide a clearer framework for expressing the ongoing impact of the pandemic.
Comprehensive election analysis and party conference events were well received with high engagement
Our UK general election coverage and party conference engagement helped position the IFoA as a crucial voice on long-term policy thinking. We produced comprehensive manifesto analyses of the main parties, as well as special coverage of parties in Northern Ireland.
This analysis garnered over 1,600 views with impressive engagement rates: viewing rates averaged close to three minutes. We also worked with seven practice boards to produce special papers on proposed policy and pledges where there was an actuarial interest.
Post-election, our strategic outreach included 24 letters to new government and shadow ministers. In partnership with the Institute for Government, we hosted high-profile events at both Labour and Conservative conferences, examining mission-led governance and long-term policy delivery.
These events featured esteemed speakers, including IFoA President Kartina Tahir Thomson, Josh Simons MP and Lord Norton of Louth. The panels drew 120 in-person guests and generated nearly 1,500 podcast downloads and SoundCloud plays.
Tom Kenny, IFoA Fellow and Chair of the IFoA Social Care Working Party
For me, being chair of the Social Care Working Party, I would love to see the next government implement social care reform that is sustainable. I think the IFoA is doing a brilliant job bringing together the actuarial expertise from across our profession to help policymakers with long term policymaking – let’s hope the next government is listening to the profession!
Beyond the next parliament
Over 350 people attended our thought leadership event series reimagining policymaking
As an expert group in long-term risk management, the actuarial profession continues to advocate a return to long-term thinking. Our policy prospectus ‘Beyond the next parliament’ suggests ways the government and others can ensure a longer time horizon is considered in policymaking.
To advance this vision, we held a three-part thought leadership webinar series exploring key areas from the prospectus. Distinguished speakers including Rt Hon. David Gauke and Government Actuary Fiona Dunsire joined IFoA members on panels about the case for long-term policymaking, the longevity dividend, and greening the economy. Each event attracted over 100 participants.
Attendees praised the series for its insightful discussions, appreciating the range of expert panellists who brought varied viewpoints to these crucial policy conversations.
The Scottish Board continued the campaign by launching ‘Building a resilient Scotland’ at its conference in October. This policy prospectus sets out the steps that the Scottish Government could take to ensure long-term thinking is considered in policymaking processes.
Actuaries and AI
Our AI event series engaged over 1,100 guests in exploring technological transformation
AI’s growth could soon reach an inflection point, potentially triggering a technological renaissance akin to the rise of the internet or splitting of the atom. But what does the rise of AI mean for the actuarial and financial services sector?
Our four-part series explored AI’s increasing impact on actuaries and their work. It drew on expertise from policy, science, academia and financial services to demystify AI and its growing role in society. The talks explored the big debates around AI ethics and regulation and set out the work we as an organisation are doing in this space.
Speakers from the Ada Lovelace Institute, the Turing Institute, the International Actuarial Association and the Actuarial Association of Europe brought their expert insights to the webinars.
The programme began with a keynote from Felicity Burch of the Responsible Technology Adoption Unit, attracting 435 attendees. The regulation and ethics panel drew 244 participants, while the debate on international approaches to AI had 135 attendees. We closed the series with 300 guests for a technical deep dive.
Feedback praised the quality of presentations and diverse perspectives, noting “there’s so much learning and thinking ahead of us” and describing one session as “the best I’ve been to in a long time".
attended the keynote from Felicity Burch of the Responsible Technology Unit
participated in the regulation and ethics panel
attended the debate on international approaches to AI
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